[00:00:00] Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Chrysler Lab Podcast. I'm Kyle, I'm going to be your host. And today we're going to close the chapter on 2024, which has been a year marked by events that pretty much shook nations, tested systems, and reminded us all just how interconnected our world has become, and so let's begin with some of the headlines that shaped this year so far.
In Syria, after more than a decade of civil war, the regime of Bashar al Assad collapsed. A rebel coalition surged into Damascus, triggering a new wave of uncertainty and displacing millions yet again. The power vacuum, of course, that was left behind has set ripples throughout the Middle East and beyond.
And so we're seeing other events, such as in Asia, China intensifying its pressure on Taiwan, but instead of missiles, it was a campaign to Of cyber warfare and maritime blockades, a masterclass in quote gray zone tactics designed to destabilize without sparking all that war. And of [00:01:00] course the world held its breath as supply chains shuttered and tensions climbed, especially around the overall chip industry and the trend with AI.
Meanwhile, climate disasters broke records yet again. And so in South Asia, unprecedented monsoon rains displaced millions in Bangladesh, leaving urban centers overwhelmed and fragile economies reeling. Across the globe, temperatures soared past the 1. 5 degrees Celsius benchmark above pre industrial levels.
The clearest warning sign yet to many that our window for action is closing fast. And in Europe, political upheaval returned to Germany. Chancellor Olaf Schell's coalition faltered, forcing elections that have the potential to reshape the continent's economic and political future. In the United States, political polarization deepened, leaving leadership torn as it faced domestic crises and global challenges alike.
And finally, we saw the rise in misinformation. It was explicitly clear how AI generated videos and disinformation campaigns disrupted everything from public health emergencies to elections [00:02:00] to undermining trust in governments, institutions, and even the truth itself. And really, the question is, what sort of connects all of these events?
On the surface they seem disparate, geopolitical conflict here, a natural disaster there, but looking closer you'll see the threads tying them all together. So climate change displaces millions, migration strains fragile governance, misinformation exploits uncertainty, and weak systems amplify cascading crisis.
Each event doesn't stand alone. It spills into the next, creating a web of challenges that no nation can untangle all on their own. And that's really what we're exploring today as we close out 2024. It's really the interconnectedness of crisis. So over the next 30 to 40 minutes, we'll dive a little bit deeper into these stories and reflect on what they teach us.
And most importantly, consider how and where we can go from here. So just stick with me as we go through some of these topics a little bit more in depth, but before we get started into that, I would like to take a look back on all that we've accomplished this year. So it's been a really a great task to launch Crisis Lab this year as we started in February, [00:03:00] 2024.
And it's impossible not to feel proud of what we've achieved this year. It's been a year of growth, innovation, and impact. And I want to take a moment to celebrate the milestones that have helped shaped this journey. So first let's talk about our courses. So this year, when we launched in February, we published groundbreaking courses designed to tackle the world's most pressing challenges.
So this would include systems thinking, emergency management, strategic crisis, leadership, climate induced relocation and security issues, or even cyber security in the food industry. And many more topics. Each of these courses really reflects our commitment to providing actionable insights and strategies for all leaders in today's complex crisis.
In addition, we recorded and published 16 podcast episodes this year, exploring topics ranging from climate migration to misinformation and even business continuity. And these episodes have over 13, 000 downloads so far, And offering thought leadership and sparking meaningful discussions within our community.
We also made our presence felt [00:04:00] globally. So this year we attended major conferences and presented in forums like the Baltic Security Conference and held our first ever in person lab in Riga, Latvia, a milestone moment for Crisis Lab itself. And another significant accomplishment was that we transitioned our flagship NATO Crisis Management and Disaster Response course that we teach in cooperation with the Center of Excellence with NATO into a fully online asynchronous format.
So this new structure ensures accessibility for participants worldwide and reflects our vision for the future of learning. So beyond educational offerings, we've introduced some exciting things that are coming up for our members as we prepare for 2025. And I'll just take a moment to briefly go into those.
And so we're expanding our course catalog to reach a total of about 40 courses in 2025. And we're going to be launching live events starting next year. And that's going to be 12 live events featuring global experts and introducing an executive leadership network. It's something else that we're working on.
Exclusive space for leaders to connect with global experts and exchange ideas. We really want to [00:05:00] emphasize the value of cross domain learning and how we can all support each other across these complex crises that we continue to see. Across the global community. Soon we're going to be rolling out monthly VIP sessions with industry leaders and offering strategic resources, including case studies and actionable frameworks for decision making for our higher tier members.
And so. Really, to make these benefits accessible, we've restructured Crisis Lab into three different paths. There's the Essentials Path for those that just want to reach professional development. We have a Growth and also a Visionary Path. And so each path is really tailored to meet the needs of professionals at different stages of their journey, ensuring every member can access the resources they need to excel.
And so these accomplishments are more than just milestones for us as we launched this in early February. They're stepping stones towards our mission of building a more prepared and resilient future. And as we celebrate this year's achievements, we remain committed to growing, innovating, and providing the tools that you need, the knowledge that you need, to be able to navigate complexity.
And so we're [00:06:00] extremely proud of the work that we've done, and we very much look forward to what's happening in 2025. And now if we turn our thoughts to what has been happening this year and into a glimpse of what next year might be, let's take a look at some of these things that have developed.
First of all, let's dive into this topic of climate change and migration and what we really consider to be the invisible threat here. Once you look at climate change and migration, you could correlate to say it's an invisible thread that unravels and far more, you know, is there than what meets the eye.
And so in 2024, we saw record breaking temperatures. You've probably heard that before, but. Let me put this into perspective that this year, global temperatures crossed that critical 1. 5 degrees Celsius threshold, a number that's less about climate models and more about people's lives. In Bangladesh, as we mentioned earlier on the opening, it's always the example people bring up, but there's a reason why.
This year's monsoons displaced millions, submerging entire villages and washing away years of [00:07:00] progress. Families crammed into overcrowded urban slums and cities like Dhaka strained under the weight, not just physically, but economically, socially, and politically. And then there's Indonesia. In Jakarta, rising sea levels pushed even more residents into unsafe conditions.
People didn't leave because they wanted to. They left because staying was no longer possible. And so Jakarta itself is essentially sinking. Imagine that. A capital city is sinking. Being swallowed by water. So these stories are tragic, but here's the nuance. Climate migration isn't only about people fleeing disaster, it's about what happens next.
Where do they actually go? Who absorbs the strain? And what happens when those systems, governments, economies, and infrastructures are already fragile? And this is one of the key questions that we'd like to raise. For example, in Africa, drought forced communities from their land. But here's the complexity.
These migrations didn't happen in a vacuum. They intersected with political instability and resource scarcity. Take the Sahel, for example. Climate stressors didn't just force movement, they amplified ethnic [00:08:00] tensions and fueled insurgencies. And this is essentially the interconnectedness of crisis.
Climate change, a natural force, collides with governance, security, and economic fragility. Each displacement is more than a tragedy. It's a spark that can ignite further crisis. And at Crisis Lab, we've been asking, how do you manage climate induced relocation? How do you ensure it's not just reactive but anticipatory?
Because this is the dilemma. Do you invest in growth now in infrastructure, housing, and jobs? Or do you divert resources to climate adaptation that feels invisible until disaster actually strikes? For nations like Bangladesh, this is not a choice between good and bad. It's a choice between bad and worse.
And yet ignoring the problem today will only deepen the crisis of tomorrow. In 2024, researchers studied migration routes across the Sahel. They found something striking. Migration was actually predictable. It wasn't chaotic. It followed patterns driven by geography, economics, and climate stress. And yet governments responded.
As if these migrations were [00:09:00] surprises. This actually tells us something important. Migration is not an emergency to contain, it's a process to manage. The sooner we accept that, the sooner we can plan better, cooperate better, and reduce the strain migration places on everyone involved. And so the question is, what can we learn from this?
And I think the lesson is this. Climate migration is not tomorrow's crisis, it's today's reality. We need anticipatory governance. Governments, governments, governments. That plan for displacement, not just respond to it. We need equitable resource allocation where wealthier nations step up to support those bearing the brunt of the crisis that they didn't create in fact.
And finally, we need global cooperation because climate migration knows no borders and neither should our solution. So what happens when fragile government systems face crisis like these? Let's talk about leadership, preparedness, and the failures and opportunities of governance. So in terms of crisis governance and multi level preparedness, the collapse of, if we move on to our next example, the collapse of Syria's regime [00:10:00] reminds the world of what happens when governance fails.
It's really just utter chaos. Millions displaced, infrastructure obliterated, and extremist groups exploiting the vacuum. Meanwhile, halfway across the world, Taiwan faced a different kind of challenge. China didn't need tanks to destabilize its neighbor. It turned to cyber warfare and maritime blockades. A calculated strategy, That kept the world on edge without firing a shot.
Two very different scenarios, but both reveal a singular truth. Crisis tests the strength of governance. And in a poly crisis world, weak governance amplifies everything. If we needed to correlate that to a disaster in the United States, then we would simply say, look at the two hurricanes that hit the United States, and the subsequent crisis in governance that was following after that.
When we talk about crisis governance, we're not just talking about leaders, though. We're talking about systems, the scaffolding of decision making, coordination and resilience. Effective governance doesn't just respond to crisis, it anticipates and absorbs the impact. But here's the rub. Most governance models are built for single event [00:11:00] crisis.
A flood here, a conflict there. What happens when crisis cascades? When a flood knocks out power, failure disrupts hospitals, and misinformation spreads faster than help. That's a poly crisis, and it's the defining challenge of our time. We've explored what it means. to modernize governance for polycrisis.
This isn't about rigid plans, it's about adaptive leadership capable of responding in real time across sectors and borders. It's about multi level preparedness where governments, national authorities, and international partners operate as a cohesive whole. Take civil military collaboration and cooperation as an example.
During the floods that devastated parts of Germany this year, the most effective responses were those where civil authorities And military resources worked hand in hand, yet in many fragile states, those partnerships don't exist, or worse, they're adversarial, and that gap costs lives. So imagine this, a cyclone strikes a coastal region already struggling with economic fragility.
Aid is slow, leadership is absent, and the military doesn't trust [00:12:00] the civilian government, and the local population doesn't trust either. The results? Now imagine the opposite, a coordinator response, Where resources are deployed swiftly, communication is clear, and every actor understands their role. That's not luck, that's governance, and that's something that we argue at Crisis Lab, and it's built long before the crisis hits.
So what can we learn? Here's a lesson from our perspective, is that governance gaps don't just expose vulnerabilities, they amplify crisis. Leaders must shift from reactive mindsets to proactive systems. That means strengthening local capacities, fostering trust between civilians and military actors, and embracing flexibility in the face of uncertainty itself.
Ultimately, governance is a poly crisis in the world, and it requires humility. The willingness to learn, adapt, and collaborate across sectors and borders because no government, no matter how powerful, can go it alone. But even the best governance can fail if trust breaks down. And in 2024, nothing tested trust more than the relentless spread of [00:13:00] misinformation.
So let's talk a little bit about that. Let's talk about trust, communication, and misinformation. So trust, really it's a simple word, isn't it? And yet, in 2024, trust became one of the most precious and fragile commodities in the world. This year, we saw what happens when trust erodes, when institutions falter, and when misinformation spreads unchecked, and when truth itself becomes the battlefield.
So let me paint a bit of a picture for you. Imagine a breaking crisis, a natural disaster, if you will, perhaps a flood in a low lying city. The streets are underwater, hospitals are overwhelmed, and panic sets in. People need clear, reliable information to guide their next move. But instead of clarity, their screens are flooded with deep fakes, doctored videos of officials contradicting each other, false evacuation orders, and alarming images that stoke fear.
By the time the truth catches up, it's too late. People have already acted on the lies, and here's the most insidious part. Even when misinformation is debunked, its impact lingers. The damage has been done. In 2024, AI generated misinformation reached new heights. [00:14:00] This wasn't just about fake news, articles, or misleading tweets.
It was hyper realistic. Entire political campaigns were derailed by deepfakes. Public health emergencies were worsened by false claims, and communities already grappling with crisis found themselves further destabilized by a flood of untrustworthy information. At Crisis Lab, we've explored this topic and the psychology of misinformation, and why people believe it, and why they spread it, and why it's so hard to undo the damage.
Misinformation thrives on emotion. It's not the rational brain that shares a fake video. It's the fearful, angry, the overwhelmed brain that's looking for certainty in a chaotic moment. And this is where the concept of truth decay comes in. Truth decay isn't just about the lies spreading faster than facts.
It's about the gradual erosion of public trust and reliable information. Each time misinformation goes unchecked, people lose a little more faith in what's real and what's not. And when trust disappears, crisis response becomes infinitely harder. This raises a critical question though. So how do we fight misinformation in real [00:15:00] time?
The answer isn't just better fact checking, it's faster, more agile communication from trusted sources. Official voices need to lead the narrative before misinformation fills the void. That means investing in real time monitoring, leveraging AI ethically to detect false narratives, and most importantly, building trust long before the crisis hits.
And this really hits home down at the community level. Let's look at the public health issues and public health as an example. The COVID 19 pandemic exposed just how fragile trust in health systems has become. First, it was mixed messaging on masks, then it was vaccine misinformation spreading faster than the virus itself.
And by the time health officials regained control of the narrative, the damage was irreversible. This was further compounded by the fact that information has changed. Clarity has become evident over time, but by that time, trust has already eroded. So what can we learn? Misinformation doesn't thrive in a vacuum.
It thrives where trust is weak and communication is slow. Combating it requires a two pronged approach. First, we need agile, real time communication [00:16:00] systems that don't just react to falsehoods, but preempt them. And second, we must rebuild trust from the ground up through transparency, consistency, and community engagement.
All disasters start local and end local. Here's the hard truth, though. Trust cannot be built during a crisis. It's virtually impossible. It has to exist beforehand. Institutions must treat trust as a long term investment, not a resource to draw on, but a foundation to build upon. And trust is the glue that holds crisis response together.
But as misinformation grows more sophisticated, we must also look to technology for solutions. And so let's talk a little bit about what this means. Let's talk about AI, the opportunities it brings, and the risk that it actually carries. So in discussing technology, AI, and crisis preparedness, technology has always been a double edged sword, offering solutions to our most pressing challenges while creating new ones we often fail to anticipate.
In 2024, artificial intelligence emerged as one of the most powerful tools for crisis preparedness, fundamentally [00:17:00] changing the way we plan, simulate, and respond to emergencies. But as we saw time and time again, the potential comes with risks that must be managed. So let's start with the successes. So in California this year, emergency responders used AI driven simulations to prepare for unprecedented wildfire scenarios.
What made this groundbreaking wasn't just the realism, it was the ability to adapt. As responders made decisions, the AI models adjusted in the crisis trajectory in real time, highlighting cascading effects. Blocked routes, delaying medical aid, misinformation spreading through disrupted communication, and resource strain worsening under pressure.
Here's the takeaway. AI revealed the interconnected nature of crisis better than any static model ever could. It didn't just test preparedness, it refined it. But for all its strengths, AI has limitations. For one, it relies on the data that we feed it. During a major earthquake simulation in Japan, AI models failed.
To account for recent retrofitting efforts producing flawed risk assessments. This wasn't a technology failure, it was a data failure. [00:18:00] AI, as a tool, is only as good as its inputs. And when data is biased, outdated, or incomplete, the consequences can be severe. And this actually raises the ethical question, are we too reliant on AI?
AI models can process complexity, but they cannot replace human intuition, creativity, or moral judgment. Think of Fukushima in 2011. Could AI have predicted the convergence of an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear meltdown? Perhaps. But could it replicate the human ingenuity and sheer grit that save lives?
Certainly not. The point is this, AI should enhance human decision making and not necessarily replace it. So now let's talk about the digital divide, because AI driven tools are revolutionizing crisis management in wealthy nations, but the Global South, where crisis hits the hardest, often lacks the infrastructure to make it happen.
Sufficient use of them. So imagine two coastal cities facing a cyclone. One uses AI to predict the storm's path, optimizing evacuation, allocation of resources, and the other relies on outdated maps and [00:19:00] historical weather patterns and lacking infrastructure. And so this gap in access creates two worlds, one prepared and the other vulnerable.
Bridging this divide must be a global priority. If AI is a tool for resilience, it must also be accessible, ethical, and inclusive. Governments, tech companies, and international organizations must collaborate to ensure that AI tools work for everyone, not just those who can afford them. And ultimately, technology alone cannot build resilience.
AI helps us simulate solutions. Real resilience comes from how we adapt in the face of crisis, especially in environments where resources are scarce and aid delivery itself becomes a challenge. So let's talk about that next. In terms of technology, AI, crisis preparedness, Technology has always been a double edged sword, offering solutions to our most pressing challenges while creating new ones we often fail to anticipate.
In 2024, if we're looking back, AI did actually emerge as one of the most powerful tools to be able to align crisis preparedness efforts [00:20:00] and fundamentally changing the way that we plan, simulate, and respond to emergencies. But as we saw and as we discussed, its potential comes with risks that must be managed.
Ultimately, technology alone cannot build a resilience. While AI helps us simulate solutions, real resilience comes from how we adapt in the face of crisis, especially environments where resources are scarce, and aid delivery itself becomes a challenge. So let's talk about resilience and aid in austere environments.
It's a word we often use, but what does it truly mean in places where resources are scarce? Systems are fragile, and the margin for error is nonexistent. In 2024, a crisis in southern Sudan, Somalia, and Syria reminded us of the harsh realities of aid delivery in austere environments and the importance of building resilience from the ground up.
So let's start with South Sudan. This year, continued conflict and flooding displaced hundreds of thousands, leaving already fragile communities without food, shelter, or medical aid. International agencies rushed in, on tension, but often uncoordinated. Trucks of food arrived, but poor [00:21:00] infrastructure meant they couldn't reach the people who needed them the most.
Most medicines were delivered, but without refrigeration, sometimes. They spoiled in the heat and here's the hard truth. Aid, however generous, does fail when it's not tailored to the environment and the context. But this isn't really just about logistics. It's about understanding local needs. Providing food without addressing clean water shortages leads to disease outbreaks.
Offering short term aid without investing in long term solutions creates dependency, and dependency can undermine a community's ability to recover. This is the delicate balance of aid. Immediate relief must be paired with sustainable strategies that empower communities to rebuild. Now let's consider Syria.
The collapse of Assad's regime triggered another wave of displacement. Millions of families fleeing to wherever safety could be found. But this time, migration itself was weaponized. Neighboring nations struggling to accommodate refugees used their plight as political leverage. Aid became a bargaining chip, essentially, in geopolitical games, raising an [00:22:00] uncomfortable question, an ethical question, of who decides who gets help.
And this is where aid delivery becomes deeply complex. It's not just about sending resources. It's about navigating political, social, and ethical minefields. The humanitarian sector must ask itself hard questions. How do we ensure neutrality in conflict zones? How do we deliver aid without unintentionally fueling corruption, exploitation, and further instability?
At Crisis Lab, we've argued that aid must be context specific, ethical, and sustainable. Effective aid delivery requires collaboration with local leaders, people who understand the needs, strengths, and complexities of their communities. And it requires long term vision, empowering people with tools, skills, and resources to rebuild rather than leaving them dependent on external help.
And so let me share another example here. In Somalia NGO achieved what larger agencies essentially couldn't. At the end of the day, instead of bringing on external solutions, they partnered with local farmers to restore arable land. They didn't just hand out seeds. They taught sustainable farming techniques, improved [00:23:00] irrigation systems and help farmers access local markets.
The result, resilience, communities that could feed themselves, adapt to climate stress and plan for the future. And this is what resilience really looks like. Not quick fixes, but lasting change rooted in the strengths of the people it serves. Resilience building must start at the community level. Aid is most often effective when it empowers, not replaces.
And it requires collaboration, careful planning, and long term commitment to creating systems that can withstand future crisis. And resilience is about people, at the end of the day. Their ability to adapt, recover, and thrive despite the odds that are placed against them. But as crises grow more interconnected, we must ask ourselves, How do we build resilience that bridges broader issues, borders, sectors, and systems?
And it's a question that has not yet been answered, but one that we're continually working on at Crisis Lab. And so let's turn the conversation to what we are looking at in 2025. What are the insights and what 2025 looks like is, is a question that I think [00:24:00] everybody's going through right now. And if there's one lesson that we can take from 2024, it's this.
That crises are no longer isolated events. They are interconnected, they're cascading, they're compounding. And are global in their impact. So let's think about it. Climate change displaces millions, straining fragile governance systems and worsening humanitarian crisis. Migration pressures in turn, fuel political instability, resource competition, even conflict.
And add to that the role of trust and misinformation, which can erode institutional responses and amplify panic when people need clear leadership the most, and let's not forget technology tools like AI that offer. Hope, but also introduce new ethical challenges. But what does this all actually mean? It means we can no longer afford to treat a crisis in silos.
Every decision we make, whether it's responding to migration, deploying humanitarian aid, or adopting new technologies has ripple effects. Resilience requires us to see the whole picture, to connect the dots and to collaborate across sectors, borders, and disciplines, [00:25:00] the interconnected nature of crisis demands innovative, adaptive strategies that requires people to Leadership grounded in trust communication that cuts through noise and solutions that empower communities rather than weaken them.
Above all, it requires collaboration, because no nation, organization, or system can tackle these challenges alone. At CrisisLive, we've remained at the forefront of these emerging trends, offering actionable insights, tools, and strategies to help you navigate this evolving landscape. From climate change and migration to AI and crisis management, every topic we've discussed connects to specialized courses designed to help you build your expertise.
and make a tangible impact in your field. So if you're ready to take that next step, I really encourage you to explore our course catalog. Dive into topics that matter to you most, whether it's crisis governance, effective communication, or building resilience in an uncertain world, the resources are there and the knowledge is waiting for you.
One last thing I'll say here is that as we are looking at 2025, we obviously know that the world is more complex. Polycrisis is now at full swing and it is a [00:26:00] thing that we're all dealing with. And so the real question I have for you is, How are you connecting the dots? How are you connecting what you've learned, your expertise, and what you've mastered into these other domains?
And how do you know when the work that you're doing is impacting others or what you are impacted by? Everyone reaches a point in their career when they're looking across their communities, their landscapes, and wondering how am I impacted by food security and how am I impacted by water security and how can I make sure that my community is resilient?
Resilience is about people. Their ability to adapt, recover, and thrive despite the odds. But as crisis grow more interconnected, we must ask ourselves, how do we build resilience that bridges borders, sectors, and systems? And that really takes us into our next point. And our final point here today, which is really what are the insights and what does 2025 look like?
And so if there's one lesson that we can take from 2024 and this crazy year, it's this, that crises are no longer isolated events. They are interconnected, [00:27:00] cascading, compounding. And global in their impact. So let's think about it for a second and do a quick recap. Climate change displaces millions, straining fragile governance systems and worsening humanitarian crisis.
Migration in turn adds to more pressure, fueling political stability, resource competition, even conflict, and to that, the role of trust and misinformation. If we add that in, that can erode the institutional responses and amplify panic when people need clear leadership the most, and let's not forget technology.
Tools like AI offer hope. But also introduced new ethical challenges. And so what does this all actually means? It means that we can no longer afford to treat every crisis in a silo. Every decision we make, whether it's responding to migration, deploying humanitarian aid, or adopting new technologies has ripple effects.
Resilience requires us to see the whole picture, to connect the dots and to collaborate across sectors, borders, and disciplines. The interconnected nature of crisis demands innovative, adaptive strategies. It requires leadership, [00:28:00] grounded in trust, communication that cuts through the noise. And solutions that empower communities rather than weaken them.
Above all, it requires collaboration because no nation organization or system can tackle these challenges alone. At crisis lab, we've remained at the forefront of these emerging trends, often offering actionable insights, connectivity, and tools and strategies to help you navigate this evolving landscape from climate change and migration to AI and crisis management.
Every topic we've discussed this year connects you to specialized courses. designed to help you build your expertise and make a tangible impact in your field. So if you're ready to take the next step, I encourage you to explore our course catalog. Dive into the topics that matter to you most. Whether it's crisis governance, effective communication, or building resilience in an uncertain world, the resources are there and the knowledge is waiting for you.
So thank you for joining us in this final episode of 2024 and making this year absolutely great for us at Crisis Lab. It's been a privilege to share this journey with you. To reflect on the challenges, explore the opportunities and build deeper [00:29:00] understanding of the world that we're navigating together.
And as we move into 2025, let's remember this. The crisis we face may be global, but the solutions all start with us. How we prepare, how we respond, how we work together. The world is unpredictable, but with trust, innovation and resilience, we can all face it. Don't forget to subscribe and share this episode and explore more of our courses at crisislab.
io and together let's build a more prepared and resilient future. So see you next year for another season of insights, learning and collaboration. Have a great holiday season and see you next year.
